Sexual Assault Statistics, Also, In Which We Conclude that Obviously True Things Are True

tw: rape, sexual assault, transgender identity

Peter

I decided to look into the numbers

https://www.cdc.gov/violenceprevention/pdf/nisvs_report2010-a.pdf

this is the most comprehensive study I could find

and its…really fucking weird

so the study asked men whether they had been ‘made to penetrate’

which in itself is a really awkward term but whatever

and the numbers were crazy out of my ballpark expectations

Valentine

higher or lower?

Peter

specifically, in the study, the number of men made to penetrate in the last 12 months was about exactly the same as the number of women raped in the last 12 months

wayyyyy higher

but what I found more interesting was the fact that the LIFETIME rates for men were WAY lower

(all of this not counting prison rape of course, which is a terrible thing in its own right)

(and weird that its not counted in the general studies for these sorts of things – i mean you want to talk about a rape culture, forget about college campuses)

but anyway, that seemed really weird to me

and I can’t figure out why that would be true. The data doesn’t make any guesses either.

Valentine

[sends images of tables on pg. 15 of report]

Peter

yea those

my working theory right now is that men are told to just forget about any sexual trauma, whereas for women its something that’s almost made chronically pathological

Valentine

“chronically pathological”

what does that even mean

Peter

like it becomes a part of the person’s identity whether they want it to or not

Valentine

that also makes no sense if you’re going off of the data being the same for the last 12 months

unless what you’re saying is “the women reporting lifetime stats are ~lying~”

Peter

no, not lying. The men are lying.

or, well

devaluing?

forgetting?

but that’s just a working theory

Valentine

why would the working theory not be “women are assaulted more often”

like

Peter

because you’d expect consistency between the 12mo period and the life time

Unless all of the 12mo ones were from a specific age group?

but I’d find that sorta weird on its own – like guys are comparatively likely to be sexually assaulted at a very specific age grouping?

Valentine

The female stats for 12 month on the thing that’s comparable – “Other Sexual Violence” – ARE higher

Peter

im looking at the rape stats

Valentine

and that’s not counting the whole separate category which only female results have which male results do not, which is an additional 1 million

Multiply that by a few decades of people being sexually active

Peter

like maybe this is incorrect, but im putting ‘made to penetrate’ on the same level as ‘forced penetration’

Valentine

and i think it makes sense

why lifetime stats are significantly higher for women

Peter

not sure what you’re looking at

Valentine

the exact same tables you are?

the ones I sent earlier

Peter

no i know

but im not sure where you’re seeing an extra million

Valentine

The heading “Rape”

Which has no value for men for the last 12 months

Peter

yes but women don’t have anything under made to penetrate for the last 12 mo either

and im not looking at overall stats, im looking specifically at made to penetrate vs rape

Valentine

…okay? But “Rape” and “Other Sexual Violence” are the two sums

Peter

i really hate ‘made to penetrate’ its such an awkward term

Valentine

why would you only look at those things

Peter

because made to penetrate is arguably the comparable form for men

like, im looking at the summed term for ‘rape’ which is ‘forced penetration’

and the term ‘made to penetrate’ which is, in a different way, ‘forced penetration’

Valentine

considering that so much of the discourse surrounding this also has to do with the fact that women face other kinds of sexual assault (i.e. sexual coercion, which is significantly higher) much more than men

also just like

it makes sense that the group which has slightly higher numbers of the experience in the last 12 months would have significantly higher experience of the thing over a lifetime

Peter

uhhhhhhh

Valentine

because you live multiple years lol

and like

Peter

not at this scale

Valentine

why not? the data is there!

like if we were arguing without any information you could doubt that point

but the information ~exists~

Peter

you have 1270000 women raped (1.1%) becoming 18% in lifetime; you have 1267000 (1.1%) becoming 4.8% in lifetime

those are not at scale

Valentine

And I would ask why your first response would be to doubt the validity of the data

Peter

this isn’t doubting the validity of the data, the inconsistency is, as you said, right there

Valentine

a few points:

1. another theory is that “violent rape” (i.e. not coercion or etc) has gone down over time or that the last 12 months are somehow an outlier

2. in the broader debate about “rape culture” (which I put in quotations for your benefit), coercion and other forms of unwanted sexual harassment are a big part of the debate – those are things which the data shows fairly straightforwardly to be much higher for women

Peter

i.e. the number of men who were being made to penetrate has been constant but the number of women being raped has decreased?

and I’m not even talking about coercion or anything, so not quite sure why you keep bringing it up

Valentine

3. another possible theory which might be tricky to phrase:

Peter

for what its worth, im not sure the year long rates for coercion are that different. You’re looking at a half a percent difference for both, and I don’t think that’s even accounting for underreporting on both sides.

Definitely within margin of error

Valentine

what even is the margin of error? that’s just a random statement

and considering that you’re comparing 1.5 to 2, half a percent is important

Peter

im actually looking for it and can’t find it which is annoying

“The relative standard

error (RSE), which is a measure

of an estimate’s reliability, was

calculated for all estimates in this

report. If the RSE was greater than

30%, the estimate was deemed

unreliable and is not reported. “

so…what? are they saying the MoE could be anywhere from 1 to 30%?

lol the numbers are actually 31.5 and 32%

Valentine

anyway another theory could be – and this sounds odd – be something like the men are more likely to suffer serial rape?

Peter

hide your kid, hide your wife

that does sound odd

Valentine

RSE =/= margin of error

Peter

eh

that’s all they had for any measure of error

my other guess was that all of the guys who responded yes to the last 12 months had some other outlying factor

age, or race, or something

Valentine

margin of error is 95% confidence intervals

which is very different

Peter

did you find that? or are you just stating that?

Valentine

i’m stating that that’s how they would have been calculated

Peter

o ok

yea

Valentine

but we can’t calculate what that interval would be unless we have their stats

Peter

unclear what the margin is

Valentine

of what the standard error was

Peter

anyway, my guess was that guys were a lot more likely to be made to penetrate around drinking ages (so like, 15-30) than not

whereas girls might have the rates be higher for entire lifetimes

Valentine

there’s also the separate issue of males making up the vast majority of perpetrators

oh that’s also fair

Peter

I’m not really concerned in the us v them set up

just interested in the overall rates

they actually don’t provide the gender of the perpetrator from what i can tell, except for in the prison scenario (which is like super fucked up)

but I also just wouldn’t be surprised if the difference is due to lower reporting generally. In any case, this is like the only major study involving any kind of definition of made to penetrate, which in itself is significant.

o wait they totally do

“The majority of male rape

victims (93.3%) reported only male

perpetrators. For three of the other

forms of sexual violence, a majority

of male victims reported only

female perpetrators: being made to

penetrate (79.2%), sexual coercion

(83.6%), and unwanted sexual

contact (53.1%).”

that does make sense considering how they are defining rape

but the way they are defining rape is of course biased to a male perp

Valentine

the thing is

stripping away all the politics

Peter

rape is probly worse?

as its currently defined*

Valentine

biologically it just ~makes sense~ that people who penetrate are more effective at performing rape

Peter

because of how it’s defined

if you include ‘made to penetrate’ as a form of rape, that equalizes

Valentine

what i mean is that you would think forcing someone to penetrate would be much harder

Peter

tbh up until 5 years ago rape was literally defined as something only a male could do to a female anyway

yea, that’s what i meant when i said rape as currently defined is probly worse

Valentine

i’m sort of confused by the conservative point on this tbh – bc on the one hand people don’t like the redefinition of rape/assault as including coercion and all these other things, but on the other hand they appeal to those redefinitions to prove that men are the real victims

Peter

conservatives are dumb

like, what, you’re expecting a national party to be internally consistent?

Valentine

i also mean “men’s rights” in general, not just republicans

Peter

I have a tough time believing anything you have to say on what the men’s rights movement believes xD

Valentine

am i wrong?

Peter

i dont know, I don’t follow the movement either

frankly, as I’ve said in the past, the fact that there is no men’s rights anything to tackle these specific problems for men is fairly damning whether you look at it from standpoint theory or otherwise, but that’s a different conversation

Valentine

re: standpoint – not really

Considering that standpoint theory is saying “narratives which have been suppressed need to not be any more”

and historically the male narrative hasn’t really been suppressed

Peter

so you tell me xD

but we are having a conversation on the prevalence of male sexual assault so

Valentine

only bc people keep getting upset when people talk about female sexual assault for some reason

Peter

I think people get upset when they pretend sexual assault is a female only problem, when like…even if its majority female, its not even majority by a huge amount

Valentine

1 in 5 versus 1 in 71

Peter

1 in 71?

o you mean rape

Valentine

“Nearly 1 in 5 women

and 1 in 71 men in

the U.S. have been

raped at some time

in their lives.”

Peter

so should we count made to penetrate as a form of rape?

Valentine

add “made to penetrate” and it still isn’t close

Peter

its ~ 1 in 20

Valentine

it’s ~22 million compared to ~7 million

Peter

but I do think this isn’t conclusive. much like the original reporting on female rape stats showed crazy underreporting, i suspect the same is going on here too

Valentine

why?

Peter

for the same reason it was for women

social stigma

Valentine

tbh

i think that’s Wrong

Peter

and I suspect that the social stigma surrounding MALE made-to-penetrate (rape?) is way worse (especially under any theory of masculinity)

Valentine

i’m sure under-reporting is partially an issue

but also think that this probably is just also a gendered issue

even beyond “rape culture” won’t ALL violent crime be a gendered issue?

cuz men are ~stronger~

Peter

implication being ‘stronger’ means ‘more likely to do’?

missing link there

Valentine

of course it means “more likely to do”

“more likely to be able to do” means “more likely to do” because people are fucking shit

Peter

I think you could also easily see it the other way, i.e. stronger means less likely to do because self restraint

Valentine

even if you assume that a consistent proportion of men and women would commit violent crimes if they had the chance, then you would expect to see the percentage of men who actually do it to be higher bc they’d have more means to

why should stronger mean self-restraint at all?

Peter

like you’re more likely to restrain yourself if you know you’re going to do damage

Valentine

what kind of model of human behavior is that lololol

that’s ludicrously optimistic

if that was how people behaved none of this would be a problem

Peter

I don’t think so. Studies show that women are just as aggressive if not more so than men, right? Just as likely to initiate fights, verbally abuse, etc. etc.

Valentine

restraint is a rare fucking trait

that’s actually just a v silly theory lol

also like, verbally abuse =/= physical violence at all right

Peter

I don’t really think so. Like this is kinda the foundation of human society – that people who CAN do immoral things generally WONT

Valentine

“Stronger” literally just meant that: physically stronger

okay but obviously ~~some people do~~ right??

and it seems clear to me that in the case of all violent crimes (robbery, murder, rape, etc) they would be committed more by the groups more capable of actually committing them

because if every human group had the same propensity to want to do them, they would simply be ~capable~ of doing it more

Peter

I guess that’s fair, but it would also fly in the face of all of that masculinity stuff that teaches men to a) not show feelings and b) protect women (or whatever it is that masculinity is defined as)

Valentine

also just like, while that might be a philosophical foundation, it’s just empirically not true lol

those who have power use it

Peter

you’re appealing to the cynic in me

Valentine

Classic Masculinity ™ also taught men to grab their secretary’s ass as she walked by the desk

so like, works both ways

Peter

#hot

fair

anyway

as much as rape and sexual violence is a gendered issue, I think the main thrust of the original argument – and the more relevant piece – is that its not a minimal amount that happens for guys. Maybe we should have more than one male DV shelter?

Valentine

oh lol

like, i don’t think many people are going to disagree with you on the idea that “men should feel more comfortable reporting rape/the issue should be taken more seriously”

Peter

that one person from XO Jane seemed to xD

Valentine

I don’t think that idea really conflicts with most modern feminist theory

What even is XO Jane

Peter

maybe just most modern feminists

i believe its one of those pop-feminism mags

Valentine

I’ve literally never heard of it before until you sent that

Peter

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XoJane

Valentine

i mean at that point you might as well have linked me to cosmo right

Peter

“In less than two months from the launch date, xoJane established itself as one of Forbes’ “Top 10 Lifestyle Websites for Women.””

mebbe cuz yer not a woman you fukin misogynist

Valentine

“lifestyle websites” are uniformly trash content

Peter

unclear about alexa rankings

frankly so are identity politics websites xD

Valentine

are “identity politics websites” a genre now

Peter

dunno

Valentine

and eh, i think facebook is pretty good

Peter

brietbart?

Valentine

lol

Peter

like identity politics for the right is awful

Valentine

i c what u did there

Peter

😉

Valentine

;*

see you should have trashed brietbart to the people earlier

wait it’s 2am there

aren’t you doing an orientation thing

why are you awake

Peter

yea I should sleep

and I trashed trump, but that wasn’t enough apparently

Valentine

good luck winning them over

to be fair all of your friends here were at one point shocked to learn your political inclinations

Peter

were they though?

I feel like I made them fairly clear

Valentine

that’s what i mean

like at first people would be like “oh”

and then they’d be like “whatever”

Peter

I have very well reasoned argumentation on my side, fuck you very much good sir

Valentine

though to be fair you had the advantage of meeting us as freshmen, when we weren’t as set in our politics

Peter

are you telling me you became MORE liberal since you got here?

Valentine

apparently the argumentation wasn’t good enough to convince those people though

Peter

cause that doesn’t sound right

Valentine

oh definitely

my opinions were closer to yours in high school lol

Peter

fuk

Valentine

though to be fair i’ve always been on the left/left of you

but like, I didn’t think everything was a social construct in high school

Peter

do you think that now? XD

cause like, trans people amirite

Valentine

i think most things are a function of some level of essentialism and social programming

but i think the social aspect of it is predominant in most aspects of identity

Peter

but like, trans people amirite?

no seriously, doesn’t gender dysphoria poke a MASSIVE hole in that?

i can’t spell

no thats the correct spelling

Valentine

eh – does it?

Peter

people who grow up male/female but feel deep inside that they are female/male?

Valentine

the fact that people feel their gender identities correspond better with a different biological sex might also stem from the fact that we socially correspond specific gender identities with biological sex

Peter

the implication being that their ‘innate’ gender identities come from…where?

Valentine

perhaps that’s the essential part

Peter

the moment you agree that its possible to have an ‘innate’ anything, you’re agreeing on biological impact

Valentine

i mean ultimately i agree that individuals have their own unique set of traits

so like of course i agree biology ~exists~

Peter

I also think the numbers are just kinda against you, in the sense that the vast majority of people who are gendered male feel male, and the vast majority of people who are gendered female feel female

Valentine

idk. why should gender identity be unlike, say, sexuality? or like, how much you enjoy bell peppers? in that both aren’t essential binaries but spectrums and all that

if gender =/= sex

Peter

well, im saying the numbers would imply that gender is functionally equal to sex, except for a few cases

Valentine

also idk what the numbers argument proves at all

most men are attracted to women, but gay people still exist

so clearly sex isn’t “equal” to sexual attraction

Peter

sure, are you saying the number of trans people is crazy underreported?

Valentine

is the argument that since there aren’t many transpeople, there must be no transpeople?

Peter

no, just that they’re the outliers

Valentine

okay. is your argument that they are therefore wrong about their identity

Peter

no, just that there is probably a causal relation between your genitals and your gendered identity

Valentine

numbers are a dangerous game here

sure: the causal relationship is that when you’re born with a penis everyone tells you that you’re a boy and that you should wear pants not skirts

Peter

I mean, if that was enough to do the trick then what up with trans people?

Valentine

I agree that causation exists lol

idk, winston manages to hate big brother

rare outliers can always overcome conditioning

Peter

wait so trans people are the only ones following their actual biological urges, but everyone else is socially conditioned?

Valentine

not ~everyone~ – i do agree that probably the majority of men/women would “voluntarily” choose the same gender/sex pair they currently have

Peter

why?

Valentine

cuz i don’t think biology doesn’t exist

it’s more fun to argue the stronger claim tho

Peter

fair

Valentine

i just think biology is very heavily mediated by socialization

Peter

ok yea ill buy that

yea that is boring tho

Valentine

also there are probably a shit ton of people who “could” be trans

Peter

its like, ‘hey guys, the obvious thing is obviously true’

Valentine

who are…idk if closeted is the right word

yeah exactly lol

Peter

meh

whatever

you need to post an article you fuck man

 

 

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